trivago lowers FY17 guidance due to Revenue per Qualified Referral (RPQR) impacts, FX and dificult comps
For the full fiscal year 2017, co now expects annual revenue growth to be around 40% (down from +50% vs. +51.5% consensus) and adjusted EBITDA to be lower than in 2016 but to remain positive (down from a slight increase Y/Y).
The changes to our full-year guidance are due primarily to the following two factors:
- Revenue per Qualified Referral (RPQR) related impacts:
- The anticipated negative impact on RPQR that we discussed on our second quarter 2017 earnings call has been more significant than previously expected.
- As a result of this impact, we have algorithmically pulled back our performance marketing activities more than previously anticipated, which has resulted in a further slowdown in traffic and revenue growth from those channels.
- Due to the speed with which the above RPQR slowdown unfolded we were unable to pull back planned television advertising spend quickly enough to prevent overspend. As a consequence, we will have lower Return on Adverting Spend (ROAS) in July and August and adjusted EBITDA margins in those months have been negatively impacted. Note that we do expect ROAS to stabilize over time with an adjustment of brand marketing expenses.
- In addition to the above two factors, the following factors are also impacting our performance:
- Difficult revenue comps as results for summer period in 2016 were exceptionally strong as compared to 2015 and 2014, and
- Foreign exchange effects associated with recent weakness in the US dollar and other currencies versus the Euro.
- Although the above factors represent near term challenges, we remain unwavering in our belief in the medium to long-term potential of the business.
- As previously communicated, the company will participate in a question and answer session at the Citi Global Technology Conference in New York City today at 08:00 a.m. Eastern Time
- OTAs: EXPE owns 59.7% of EXPE; PCLN, TRIP
